MDY Analytics

How long before this patient crosses a clinical threshold?

PARIS AI Sepsis AEP answers that question at the bedside, for one patient, in advance, with the confidence that attaches to the estimate. Every sepsis instrument in use reads the present; this one reads forward.

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Predicted lactate trajectory with its confidence band Serum lactate observed over the past day rises slowly. From now, the predicted course and its confidence band widen towards the septic shock threshold. The interval between now and the predicted crossing is marked as the time to act. -24 h -12 h +12 h +24 h lactate low time to act 4 mmol/L, septic shock now
Illustration: observed serum lactate, the predicted course with its confidence band, and the window to act before the septic shock threshold is crossed.

Sepsis is behind one death in three worldwide, and its burden does not end at discharge.

166 million cases and 21.4 million deaths a year, by the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study. Survival is decided in hours; for survivors, readmission and late mortality follow for years.

  • 21.4M

    deaths a year, close to one in three worldwide

    GBD 2021
  • 2 to 6 h

    from sepsis criteria being met to management beginning

    Large cohort studies
  • >40%

    mortality once serum lactate exceeds 4 mmol/L

    Septic shock literature
  • $52.1bn

    US hospital costs in 2021, the costliest condition

    AHRQ

The burden continues after discharge

More survivors are dead at five years than were readmitted in the first year.

Mortality and readmission after sepsis discharge Readmission rises from 20 per cent at one month to 33 per cent at three months and 44 per cent at one year. Cumulative mortality rises from 15 per cent at one month to 42.3 per cent at five years. Logarithmic time axis; points are the reported observations. 0% 20% 40% 1 month 3 months 1 year 5 years 20% 33% 44% 15% 42.3% Readmission Cumulative mortality
Mortality and readmission after discharge. Logarithmic time axis. Points are the reported observations; no values are interpolated between them. Sources: 76-study systematic review, 2025; pooled reviews.

Sepsis-3, the septic shock criteria, NEWS2 and learned classifiers all read the present state. None warns before a defining threshold is crossed.

What the instruments in use answer

How severe is this patient now?

What the field has asked for

Will this patient cross the line, and is there time to act?

Named as a priority by the Surviving Sepsis Campaign 2026 guidelines, the NICE suspected-sepsis suite, the ADQI 28 consensus and the Global Sepsis Alliance.

PARIS AI Sepsis AEP: Acute Events Prevention

One prediction, read in both directions

Where a patient is heading for a clinical boundary, the system warns ahead of it. Where a patient is not, it says so. One system, two clinical purposes, both validated by the same evidence.

One prediction, two clinical purposes Two courses from now. One rises and crosses the clinical boundary; the interval before it does so is the time to act, and the reading is a deterioration warning. The other stays in range, and the reading is a stability confirmation. now clinical boundary time to act Deterioration warning a course heading for the boundary Stability confirmation a course that stays in range time through the patient's stay
One prediction, two clinical purposes. The same forecast produces both readings: a course heading for the boundary is the warning; one that stays in range is the confirmation.

Act earlier

A warning ahead of the threshold, while there is still time to prepare treatment.

Fewer alarms, confident step-down

Stability confirmed for the many patients who are safe, so observation and support can be reduced with evidence.

Auditable

Every output traceable to what was known at the moment it was made.

Six stages, one direction of travel

The development journey Six stages in sequence: data sources, cohort definition, wrangling, the engine, validation and reporting. Raw tables enter; an auditable warning and the trail to reproduce it leave. 1 Data sources Records registered through a catalogue 2 Cohort definition Definitions carried in parallel 3 Wrangling Checked and standardised 4 The engine Foresight from routine observations 5 Validation Pre-specified and reported separately 6 Reporting Auditable evidence package what enters: tables on different clocks, in different units, sampled irregularly what leaves: an auditable warning, and the trail to reproduce it
The development journey. Every downstream result can be traced back through the stages that produced it; no stage is a black box to the one after it.

Join the validation programme

NHS trusts, intensive care units and research institutions are welcome to join.

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